The Israeli Arrow 3 air defense system’s exceptional kill rate against Iranian ballistic missiles is directly linked to artificial intelligence (AI) integrated into its “Green Pine” radar, a capability now being carried forward and expanded in the next-generation Arrow 4.
In recent combat, the Arrow 3 achieved an over 90% kill rate against ballistic missiles. Official IAI documentation confirms that the latest ELM-2080C Green Pine version has been “upgraded with major improvements, additional features, enhanced algorithms and AI.” These upgrades support autonomous detection, simultaneous tracking and classification of dozens of ballistic missiles, discrimination from clutter and decoys, and operation under interference, all critical to Arrow system performance. The AI feature also improves precise launch and impact point estimation.
The Arrow 4, expected to become operational before the end of 2026, will incorporate significantly enhanced AI use. The system will feature winglets and aerodynamic control surfaces enabling superior maneuvering at speeds over Mach 10, specifically targeting hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), maneuverable re-entry vehicles (MaRVs), multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and decoys. Its fire control will leverage AI, machine learning algorithms and advanced seekers for rapid target classification, discrimination and endgame trajectory management, capabilities that will boost interception rates and the system’s ability to handle salvos. The Arrow 4 warhead will also be upgraded to more efficiently defeat agile hypersonic missiles.
Sources indicate that Arrow’s extensive operational use will result in additional upgrades to detection sensors and “other aspects” of the system.