By: Arie Egozi
Russia just revealed a major advance in automated warfare with its mass deployment of AI-powered Geran-2 loitering munitions. This pivotal shift will likely intensify the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and have longer-range implications for the future of long-range drone combat.
Russia’s AI-Driven Geran-2 Drones
In late 2025, in a significant escalation in both output and capability, Russian forces began manufacturing more than 5,000 upgraded Geran-2 drones each month at the Alabuga factory in Tatarstan.
The Russians have also upgraded the Geran-2, based on the Iranian Shahed-136 design, through advanced onboard artificial intelligence (AI), reportedly leveraging Nvidia Jetson computers to provide autonomous target recognition, real-time video processing, and guidance. These key features allow these drones to operate and strike even in heavily contested or GPS-denied environments.
Unlike earlier generations, the newest Geran-2 models also integrate warhead improvements, including incendiary and high-explosive fragmentation options, as well as field-programmable gate arrays designed for robust electronic warfare (EW) resistance. This enables the drone to choose, pursue and strike targets with minimal operator input. It dramatically reduces the time, expertise and risk associated with conventional manned or remotely piloted attacks.
Scale, Production, and Impact on the Ukraine War
Intelligence sources report the Alabuga plant produced over 26,000 Geran-2 drones by late spring 2025, and has ambitious plans to top 40,000 by year’s end. The facility has scaled to deliver upwards of 170 to 190 drones daily, with new expansions targeting production rates of over 6,000 units per month. According to Ukrainian officials and international-defense analysts, this surge in quantity increasingly overwhelms air defense systems and renders them “almost useless” against such mass deployments.
The Russians have focused Geran-2’s operational deployment on crippling Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics in mass nighttime swarms. Experts highlight the introduction of decoy variants (over 2,500 per month specifically designed to saturate and defeat integrated air defense networks) further complicate defense planning and resource allocation for Ukrainian forces. The full navigation suite, with improved anti-jamming antennas and increased endurance, allow these loitering munitions to operate far behind enemy lines, with versions tailored for stealth night operations.
Foreign Sourced AI Tech at the Heart
The Geran-2’s key competitive edge lies in its AI hardware. Intelligence sources report that Russian leverages the Nvidia Jetson module to drive advanced machine vision and autonomous flight decisions. Additional subsystems, such as HD video encoders, FPGA processors for signal handling, and multi-country-sourced microcontrollers, indicate a platform that blends Russian assembly with a global supply chain, despite export control barriers. Analysts note that complete domestic production remains elusive for now. That makes component importation of this tech a continuing need…and supply chain vulnerability.
Recent technical assessments also suggest these AI upgrades now allow Geran-2s to evade sophisticated jamming and reroute in real-time. This capability potentially foreshadows the arrival of true “drone swarms” operating autonomously in contested battle spaces.
Implications for the Conflict and Global Drone Warfare
The mass production of AI-infused Geran-2s has launched a new paradigm in drone warfare, where sheer volume combines with machine autonomy to attack at scale. This places unprecedented pressure on defenders and signals a tactical shift that could soon be replicated by other military powers. Israeli and Ukrainian defense analysts warn that if these trends continue, traditional air defense strategies may require radical reinvention to counter increasingly independent and numerous drone swarms. While the full strategic implications remain to be seen, the Geran-2’s rapid evolution highlights both the innovative potential and the broader destabilizing effects of AI-powered munitions in modern war.